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The Real End
In their situation room, the Bank of Japan devised a plan to “cap” long-term interest rates.
Jun 21
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Ben Emons
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The Real End
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Fed's Diminished Room to Cut
The conflict between Israel and Iran is at risk of widening to critical energy infrastructure.
Jun 18
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Ben Emons
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Fed's Diminished Room to Cut
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The Evac
Just as China and the US agreed to what they agreed to in Geneva two weeks ago, Israel is ready to launch an offensive against Iran, prompting an "evac…
Jun 12
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Ben Emons
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The Evac
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January 2025
PPI Portfolio Management
Unlike the CPI index, the PCE and PPI have a component called “portfolio management and investment advisory services.” The weighting of this category is…
Jan 14
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Ben Emons
1
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PPI Portfolio Management
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Stock-Bond Correlation
Large language models could effectively filter the Fed's “noise” into tradable output.
Jan 13
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Ben Emons
2
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Stock-Bond Correlation
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Community Bank Fires
A few regional banks report earnings this week.
Jan 12
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Ben Emons
2
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Community Bank Fires
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Payrolls Challenge
The payroll may once again be a surprise.
Jan 10
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Ben Emons
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Payrolls Challenge
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Gilt Quandary
The bond market in the UK is ablaze as traders have lost faith in the fiscal rules.
Jan 9
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Ben Emons
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Gilt Quandary
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Waller's Term Premium
During Q&A after his speech, Chris Waller explained why long-term yields and term premiums have risen.
Jan 8
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Ben Emons
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Waller's Term Premium
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The IEEAP Shock
In yesterday’s press conference, Trump's comments about rates being “far too high” hit a snare.
Jan 8
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Ben Emons
1
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The IEEAP Shock
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Jensen's Jolt
A key macro takeaway from Jensen’s is robotics and autonomous driving, the "physical AI.” The market for this technology is “just $35 billion,” but it…
Jan 7
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Ben Emons
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Jensen's Jolt
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Tariff Term Premium
Manhattan is getting “tariffed” at the gate with $9.
Jan 6
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Ben Emons
1
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Tariff Term Premium
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