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Meticulous Miran
In Miran’s first public appearance after being confirmed right before the Fed meeting, he took the opportunity to clarify why the Fed needs to take a…
11 hrs ago
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Ben Emons
The Insurance Rally
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, a Santa Claus rally is a phenomenon of a brief period (the last 5 days of the year and the first two of the new…
Sep 18
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Ben Emons
Why It is 50bps today
Live from the NYSE
Sep 17
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Ben Emons
0:40
Fed FOMO
Treasury yields continue to dip, partly due to the expectation that today’s expected cut will set the stage for a 50-bps move.
Sep 17
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Ben Emons
Sell the Fed News
At Friday’s close, the market expects less than a 5 percent chance the Fed moves by more than a quarter point because jobless claims and BLS revisions…
Sep 14
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Ben Emons
Cloud in the Blue Sky
There is a news item that doesn’t get much attention in an AI, Larry Ellison, Skydance-Warner Bros bid news-driven market.
Sep 12
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Ben Emons
CPI Consequences
It is not as binary as payrolls, but the CPI release today could be consequential.
Sep 11
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Ben Emons
1
Golden BLS Revision
Gold surges, and this time it is not driven by a short squeeze.
Sep 10
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Ben Emons
2
The Inflation Cut
There are expectations in the markets of CPI reaching over 3 percent, with core closer to 3.5%.
Sep 9
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Ben Emons
1
Manufacturing Mystery
A significant news item is Japanese PM Ishiba stepping down, after weeks of speculation, a historic Upper House election loss, and internal pressure.
Sep 7
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Ben Emons
Payrolls Profit Taking
The pre-condition was proper; if payrolls came out weaker, i.e., well below 50K, the market's chances of jumbo cuts could surge.
Sep 5
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Ben Emons
1
Yield Breakout
The remaining retail earnings—Macy’s and Dollar Tree—were surprisingly opposite; Macy’s must diversify its supply chains because of the consumer’s…
Sep 3
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Ben Emons
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