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Fed FOMO
Treasury yields continue to dip, partly due to the expectation that today’s expected cut will set the stage for a 50-bps move.
1 hr ago
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Ben Emons
Sell the Fed News
At Friday’s close, the market expects less than a 5 percent chance the Fed moves by more than a quarter point because jobless claims and BLS revisions…
Sep 14
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Ben Emons
Cloud in the Blue Sky
There is a news item that doesn’t get much attention in an AI, Larry Ellison, Skydance-Warner Bros bid news-driven market.
Sep 12
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Ben Emons
CPI Consequences
It is not as binary as payrolls, but the CPI release today could be consequential.
Sep 11
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Ben Emons
1
Golden BLS Revision
Gold surges, and this time it is not driven by a short squeeze.
Sep 10
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Ben Emons
2
The Inflation Cut
There are expectations in the markets of CPI reaching over 3 percent, with core closer to 3.5%.
Sep 9
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Ben Emons
1
Manufacturing Mystery
A significant news item is Japanese PM Ishiba stepping down, after weeks of speculation, a historic Upper House election loss, and internal pressure.
Sep 7
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Ben Emons
Payrolls Profit Taking
The pre-condition was proper; if payrolls came out weaker, i.e., well below 50K, the market's chances of jumbo cuts could surge.
Sep 5
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Ben Emons
1
Yield Breakout
The remaining retail earnings—Macy’s and Dollar Tree—were surprisingly opposite; Macy’s must diversify its supply chains because of the consumer’s…
Sep 3
•
Ben Emons
Vanity of the Bond Fire
The tremors of Liz Truss are returning to bond markets, as, from a seasonal perspective, September is not a favorable month for bonds, with a median…
Sep 2
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Ben Emons
August 2025
Getting Accommodative
The economy is strengthening, while financial conditions are easing.
Aug 29
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Ben Emons
2
The Fed Risk
Markets may not have reacted to the Cook news cycle, but the “Fed risk” is rising in Treasuries.
Aug 27
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Ben Emons
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